Climatic system and factors determining climate formation
Climate is a long-term weather regime characteristic of this territory, caused by solar radiation, its transformation in the active layer of the earth's surface and the associated circulation of the atmosphere and oceans.
Climate-forming factors - solar radiation, atmospheric and ocean circulation have a global scale.
The climate system combines the atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, cryosphere and biosphere.
The components of the climate system are interconnected and have a complex interaction, which is characterized by input and feedback. Oceanic currents carry out inter-latitude heat exchange in the ocean: in particular, masses of warm water are transported from tropical to high latitudes, from the surface of which, especially in the cold season, heat is transferred to the atmosphere. Thus, the ocean plays a significant role in shaping the temperature field in the atmosphere and, as a result, the characteristics of its circulation processes. The atmosphere, in turn, affects the surface temperature of the ocean.
The state of the biosphere is determined by heat and moisture resources, which are formed as a result of the transformation of solar radiation in the process of interaction between the components of the system. On the other hand, the biosphere significantly affects the state of the climate system: vegetation largely determines the reflectivity of the planet, participates in the processes of moisture exchange, is the main source of oxygen, regulates, together with the ocean, the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere, forming its temperature regime. A special role belongs to anthropogenic activity, as a result of which the properties of individual components and, as a result, the climate system as a whole change.
The complexity and ambiguity of connections in the climate system, the constant evolution of its components with different inertia are the cause of many climate changes on the planet. Since several types of climate can exist on Earth under the same external conditions, the state of the climate system is determined not only by external influences, but also by the interaction between its components.
Physical mechanisms affecting the climate system, as well as the main interactions between its components, are called climate-forming factors. They are divided into: external, which determine the energy impact on the climate system, and internal, which characterize the properties of the climate system itself.
External climate-forming factors include astronomical and geophysical factors. The astronomical ones include: the luminosity of the Sun, the position of the Earth's orbit in the Solar System and the characteristics of the Earth's orbital motion, the inclination of its axis to the plane of the orbit and the speed of rotation around the axis. These factors depend, firstly, on the distribution of solar energy that reaches the upper boundary of the atmosphere, and secondly, on the gravitational effects of the Sun and the planets of the Solar System. The latter, changing over time, cause tides, fluctuations in the characteristics of the orbital motion and the Earth's own rotation, which leads to a change in the energy that comes from the Sun to the upper limit of the atmosphere. Geophysical factors are the size and mass of the Earth, its own gravitational and magnetic fields, internal heat due to geothermal sources and volcanism.
The internal climate-forming factors include: physical and chemical structure of the atmosphere, mass of the atmosphere, mass and composition of the ocean, features of the distribution of land and ocean, the structure of their active layer, land surface relief.
Climatological studies and prospects for their development
Climatological research in Ukraine has long-standing traditions, which were formed at the end of the 19th and the beginning of the 20th centuries. under the influence of the scientific researches of famous climatologists: O.I. Voeykova, P.I. Brounov, O.V. Klosovsky, and others.
Already in the first years of the existence of the Ukrainian Meteorological Service (UkrMET), a number of works devoted to the study of the climate of individual cities, provinces, regions and the whole of Ukraine were published. It was at this time, in 1925, that the first regime climatological unit (Precipitation Bureau) was created. From this year, the history of regime climatology began - the systematic publication of the results of observations, their generalizations, and climate research. The first head of the "Precipitation Bureau" was one of the prominent climatologists of Ukraine - M.I. Huk. Scientific works on the study of the regime of atmospheric precipitation belong to him. He published fundamental climate maps, which were compiled using a progressive method at that time.
In the pre-war years, one of the main tasks in the study of climate was the collection and systematization of climatological information. During these years, the compilation of a climatological guide was started, which was interrupted by the war. However, even during the occupation, observers went to the meteorological site at a certain time at many meteorological stations, which made it possible not to interrupt the climatological series, which immediately after the war formed the basis of the "Climatological Handbook of the USSR, issue 10. on the Ukrainian SSR and the Moldavian SSR" (1950). The 40 tables of the handbook contain the results of long-term observations of the main meteorological variables for the period 1891-1935. M.I. Huk, M.M. Akymovych, I.O. Buchynskyi, K.S. Rozova and others participated in the preparation of the "Handbook".
In the 1950s, climatologists under the leadership of M. I. Huk carried out a number of climatological studies for the construction project of a cascade of hydroelectric power plants on the Dnieper, the South-Ukrainian Canal and other hydrotechnical structures of Ukraine.
Climatologists did a lot to meet the needs of agriculture: they published climatological characteristics of the main physical and geographical zones of Ukraine, scientific monographs.
In 1962, the "Atlas of the Ukrainian SSR and Moldavian SSR" was published. Climatic maps of this atlas were prepared by researchers of UkrNDGMI M.I.Huk, K.S.Rozova, V.M.Babichenko and M.I.Hoysa. In 1964, the first "Agroclimatic Atlas of Ukraine" was published.
The most complete description of the climate of Ukraine is given in the monograph "Climate of Ukraine" (1967) edited by G.F. Prikhotka, A.V. Tkachenko and V.M. Babichenko.
In 1966-69 the Kyiv hydrometeorological observatory (Kyiv GMO) prepared a new edition of the USSR Climate Handbook, issue 10. The Odesa GMO and the hydrometeorological observatory of the Black and Azov Seas participated in its preparation. The handbook consists of 5 parts (solar radiation and sunshine; wind; air and soil temperature; air humidity, precipitation and snow cover; cloud cover and atmospheric phenomena), which contain multi-year average values of various meteorological quantities.
In the 1990s, the "Scientific and Applied Handbook of the USSR" was created. Issue 10 (1990), in which climatological information is systematized and summarized in terms of time (month, year, five years, many years) and space (for stations, administrative and economic districts). For the territory of Ukraine, the data for the Handbook were prepared at the Hydrometeorological Observatory (now the Central Geophysical Observatory - TsGO) under the leadership of I.I. Trusov.
Climatologists of Ukraine paid great attention to the issue of studying climate fluctuations and changes. Back in the 1950s and 1970s, M. I. Huk and I. O. Buchynsky discovered short-term and insignificant fluctuations. In the early 1980s, research on the problems of climate change under the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors resumed in Ukraine. The conclusion of these works was the ascertainment of a change in the regime of precipitation and climate in Ukraine against the background of global climate change.
In the 1990s, under the leadership of V.M. Voloshchuk, new approaches and methods of studying climate change and fluctuations were developed at the UkrNDGMI, based on the achievements of modern science. Irrefutable evidence of global warming of the planet, which smooths the spatio-temporal distribution of its temperature field, has been obtained. The effect of warming is most clearly visible in polar and temperate latitudes, more clearly in the winter season than in the summer.
In the late 90s - early 2000s. "Climatic Cadastre of Ukraine" was prepared in the Department of Climatology of the CSO under the leadership of O.E.Pakhaliuk. The layout of the "Cadastre" was developed by climatologists of UkrNDGMI. Methodical support and examination were carried out by specialists of UkrNDGMI under the leadership of V.M. Babichenko. The "Cadastre" takes into account the proposals of experts from various sectors of the economy, as well as the recommendations of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
"Climatic Cadastre of Ukraine" consists of 6 parts:
- Solar radiation and sunlight;
- Atmospheric pressure and wind;
- Air and soil temperature;
- Air humidity, precipitation and snow cover;
- Atmospheric phenomena and ice-frost formations.
In the Cadastre, long-term indicators of meteorological values are given for a separate hour, day, month, as well as for a year. Meteorological values are represented by basic statistical parameters: average, extreme (largest and smallest) their values with an indication of the year when they were observed, a measure of variability (mean square deviation, coefficient of variation), for individual characteristics - frequency (repeatability) or probability.
A huge amount of actual material of meteorological observations at 187 stations of the meteorological network of the State Hydrometeor of Ukraine for the period 1961-90 was involved in the compilation of the Cadastre. This period was defined by WMO as standard, which reflects modern climatic conditions. Extreme values are presented for the entire observation period. Cadastre has updated climatological indicators and introduced new ones that supplement and expand information on the climate regime of Ukraine. Such standard climatological norms have been prepared for the first time and are recommended to be used for the objective characterization of the modern climate. The cadastre is a fundamental work on the climate of Ukraine, which is widely used in the operational service of various branches of the economy, for the construction of climatological maps, which provides an opportunity to compare norms in time and space.
In 2003, the information contained in the Cadastre was used as the basis for the preparation of the fundamental work of a large team of climatologists of Ukraine - the monograph "Climate of Ukraine". The monograph describes the theoretical justification of the climate system, features of climate formation and climate-forming factors (radiation, circulation, and influence of the subsoil surface).
On the basis of climatological information for the last 30 years of the 20th century, the use of modern technologies, the apparatus of mathematical statistics, the monograph analyzes in detail the spatio-temporal distribution of meteorological values and atmospheric, including natural phenomena.
The monograph deeply explores the problem of regional and local scales of actual changes and fluctuations of the climate, which lead to its warming as a result of anthropogenic contribution to the strengthening of the natural greenhouse effect. Several scenarios of regional climate change in the future have been developed.
In the 80s, 9 monographs of the "Climate of big cities" series were prepared: "Climate of Kyiv", "Climate of Dnepropetrovsk", "Climate of Kharkov", "Climate of Poltava", "Climate of Lutsk", "Climate of Lviv", "Climate of Vinnytsia" , "Klymat Odessa" and "Klymat Chernovtsov". Climatologists of UkrNDMI, TsGO, Odesa Hydrometeorological Institute, Vinnytsia Pedagogical Institute, Chernivtsi State University participated in the preparation of the monographs. After the collapse of the USSR, this work was stopped. Global climate changes and changes in the regional climate of Ukraine arouse great interest of consumers of climatological information in obtaining such information for individual large cities of Ukraine. In 2008, a decision was made to resume work on the publication of monographs of this series. The work of the teams of UkrNDGMI and TsGO began with the reprinting of the monograph "Climate of Kyiv". In 2010, a new monograph on the climate of our capital was published.
In the process of many years of research during the 19th-20th centuries. a significant amount of work was carried out in the study of the climate of Ukraine. Including:
- Climatological information was systematized and the general regularities of the formation of the climate of Ukraine were studied;
- The conditions and the main processes leading to the formation of spontaneous hydrometeorological phenomena were identified and the methods of climatological forecasting of individual phenomena were developed;
- The components of the heat and water balance of the territory of Ukraine are considered in detail;
- The general regularities of the formation of the radiation regime of Ukraine and its role as a climate-forming factor have been determined;
- The peculiarities of the microclimate of individual territories have been identified, the method of calculating microclimate characteristics based on the data of the nearest stations has been developed;
- The climate of mountainous (Ukrainian Carpathians, Crimean mountains) and some plain zones and regions of Ukraine was studied;
- The climate and microclimate of individual cities were studied;
- A cycle of works on the study of the statistical spatio-temporal structure of the fields of individual meteorological variables has been started.
The results of most of the completed works on climatology have a practical focus.
The development of climatological research in the future is expected to be carried out in the following directions: studying the dynamics of Ukraine's climate under the influence of natural and anthropogenic factors; assessment of socio-economic and socio-ecological consequences of climate change; development of scenarios of possible changes in the regional climate of Ukraine under the influence of global warming associated with anthropogenic strengthening of the atmospheric greenhouse effect; prognostic assessment of possible changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events associated with global warming, etc.
Implementation of the listed tasks will allow to improve, make more informative and mobile the service of science and practice in climatology.
WMO activities in climate change issues
Climate is a natural resource vital to our well-being, health and prosperity. Information collected, managed and analyzed by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), coordinated by WMO in cooperation with other regional, international organizations and programmes, helps decision-makers and users to plan and adapt their activities and projects taking into account climate conditions , which are predicted.,
Climate affects the conditions of existence and the very lives of people everywhere. Global warming is a threat to society in various aspects. More intense and prolonged droughts pose an immediate threat to millions of people. For millions more, it affects crop yields and fisheries. Heat waves, especially in large cities, have recently killed thousands of people, most of them elderly and physically weak. The economies of many countries, especially small island states, depend on tourism, and they are especially dependent on sea level rise, coastal erosion, saltwater intrusion, freshwater shortages, and environmental degradation. All this happens due to the threatening impact of climate change and leads to a decrease in the flow of tourists. In the winter of 2006-2007 many major resorts in the European Alps suffered from a decline in financial receipts, which was due to a decrease in the flow of tourists due to the lack of snow during the warm winter.
The climate also provides opportunities for the use of renewable and non-polluting sources of energy: solar and wind energy. Understanding the climate system can help farmers, fishermen, and foresters increase harvests, catches, and stocks of finished products. WMO supports regional forums for the discussion of indicative climate forecasts, which are brought together with climatologists to reach consensus on seasonal climate forecasts and, in addition, bring together diverse user groups in the fields of disaster risk prevention, health care, agriculture , forestry and fishing, tourism and energy to discuss the potential impact of climate change. There are many global climate forecasts, and the most successful of them are those that take into account El Niño predictions during the development of the forecast.
WMO coordinates activities aimed at meeting climate information needs, such as climate monitoring, climate data management, climate change detection, seasonal-interannual climate forecasts and climate change impact assessments.
Within the framework of the World Climate Program (WCP), the World Program for Climate Applications and Services (WCPSO) promotes the effective use of knowledge and information about climate for the benefit of society and for the provision of climate services, including for forecasting significant fluctuations in climate, both natural and anthropogenic.
As part of the Climate Information and Forecast Service (CLIPS) project, issues related to the provision of climate services around the world are considered. The project aims to use modern databases, improve climate knowledge and prevention capabilities to reduce the negative impact of climate variability and improve planning activities based on the development of the potential of climate science.
Climate monitoring is vital to further our understanding of the complexity of the climate system and the ability to predict its changes. The data and associated climate information that is collected and shared among users ensures that all stakeholders are informed about the state of the climate and the environment. Observing programs such as the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) and the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) play an important role in improving the collection of data needed for climate forecasting and the study of climate change.
Through the World Climate Research Program (WCRP), WMO, together with its partners, promotes climate research for the fundamental scientific understanding of the physical system and processes needed to determine the degree of predictability of climate and the impact of human activities on it. Established in 1988, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is supported by the WMO and assesses scientific, technical and socio-economic information related to understanding the risk of anthropogenic climate change, its potential impact and options for climate adaptation and mitigation of its consequences. WMO annually prepares a statement on the state of the climate on the planet.
Data rescue and preservation activities help national hydrometeorological services, especially in developing countries, to access historical data.
Ways to mitigate climate change
It is predicted that by 2030, emissions of the six main greenhouse gases will increase by 25-90% compared to 2000 levels without additional efforts. With the right strategy, it is possible to slow down and stabilize the increase in the amount of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere.
So far, developed countries have published their emission reduction targets for 2020, but most of these values fall far short of the range indicated by the IPCC, which set a reduction in 2020. the volume of emissions by 25-40% below the level of 1990. This is necessary to limit the temperature rise to 2ºC.
No single solution that can be economically and technically implemented will be able to solve the problem of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in various sectors of the economy by itself. At the same time, it becomes clear that in order to achieve the full effect of environmentally friendly technologies and rational use of energy, directed actions at the international level are necessary.
Widespread use of climate-friendly technologies is critically needed. Widespread implementation of clean technologies in the private sector, as well as their widespread use, is urgent. This can be achieved through technological cooperation between industrialized and developing countries.
Effective management of forests, which are natural carbon sinks and can absorb one-tenth of global carbon emissions, is very important in increasing biomass, soils and forest products.
If no action is taken, or if everyone continues to "shut up the problem", within a few decades the planet's greenhouse gas emissions will increase and the global temperature could increase by more than 6 ºC this century.